BJP Vs NDA - More than a game of chess

Politics is always a game of numbers. One who is smart enough to make the numbers will form the government. In history, many governments have fallen even though they had a clear majority. Vajpayee government fell just for a vote though the Speaker Balayogi could have saved his government. He did not cast his vote for the government and allowed Orissa  CM Giridhar Gamang to cast his vote, despite having being  CM in couple of months , he pressed the button against Govt,  who was supposed to resign as MP from parliment. 

Even though there was no favourable number Narsimha Rao government completed a full even while carrying a stigma of corruption for buying four JMM members. Rao was smart and completed full term even though there was no support from the Gandhi family. Vajpayee made a mistake by not picking up his man as a speaker. Two tenures of Vajpayee had a TDP man as the speaker. He rarely favoured the government.

After Polls 2024, the numbers were not in favour of Modi.  He expected at least 370 seats for the BJP alone and 400 for the NDA combined. Sometimes his own words jibed at him and his overconfidence of 400 seats bounced back. Smartly the opposition played the game and succeeded in placing the narrative of Modi’s plan 400 for changing the constitution. Finally, Modi’s count stagnated at 240 and NDA combined got 292 seats, a shade above the minimum pass mark to form the government. Most of the new friends were enemy-friend turncoats. He must be remembering Akali Dal, UBT Shiv Sena and Naveen Patnaik.

After declaring the election results, people thought Narendra Modi would be down because he got far less than the required majority. Few predicted he may not head the government. Of course, he looked sad for a day. But again he proved that he was a real politician. He played a good game and spoiled the opposition's dream to form the government.  Initially, Rahul was keen to form the government but he realised that Modi was the real master in politics. So he moved away and decided to sit in opposition. Modi knows how to play the game and in democracy, the number game is the matter not the mandate.

Unexpectedly TDP and JDU got good Numbers. Naidu was nowhere in politics but Jagan made him come back as CM and a powerful player in the Center.  Modi was not in favour of depending on outside support. He always believed in his numbers. He never led a minority government in his 25 years of power.

After this election, we have seen a different Modi. His body language changed and he started sharing the seat with other leaders and allies. The sudden changes were a surprise. He was warmly welcoming Nitish and Naidu. Many expected both of them to shift their interest to the India group but again it was a testing time for both Naidu and Nitish as they felt having lost their space in politics, instead of joining the I.N.D.I. Alliance. In a coalition government, it is always good for them to stay with the BJP. They stuck with the pre-poll NDA arrangement. It is the right decision for both of them as they can negotiate a good deal for their states. It is a safe game for Nitish as he can run the Bihar government without fear. Modi will not trouble JDU. Instead, Modi will work hard for Nitish for the next election. JDU’s victory will be a matter for Modi now.

Even while forming the government, many expected Modi to give away major ministries to alliance partners like TDP and JDU. But we have seen Modi coming back as Modi. Instead of calling it an NDA government he told the world it is his government only by choosing his people for major positions. Most of the ministers in the earlier cabinet retained key portfolios, including Nitin Gadkari. It is a surprise move to keep Nirmala even though her husband, Parakala Prabhakar is a severe critic of Modi.

The JDU has not been in a position to demand any major cabinet ministry as the BJP is supporting its government in Bihar. Nitish himself does not want to create any power equation in his cabinet. In case Nitish loses the Bihar election, the game may change again. People expected the TDP to keep the Speaker’s post like the earlier NDA governments did. However, Modi kept the position for his favourable Om Birla. He is the right person for Modi as a speaker in a minority government. We may see the minority government becoming the majority in the future.

It was surprising how Modi kept the crucial position with him. Those who knew Modi closely might not have felt it a big surprise. The TDP or the JDU alone can’t do anything against the Modi government as they have decent numbers, now 294. In case of no support from the TDP, they may lose some numbers but not the government.  Simply, Modi and Shah are separately handling their alliance, not together as the NDA. All the small parties support the BJP not as the NDA partners but as Modi well-wishers. Till the BJP can play this game safely its government will remain safe. Modi can sleep well like nothing happened in the last 10 years. Both the JDU and the TDP have collateral with the BJP, but not with the NDA.

Like other alliance partners, Paswan and Shinde will align only with the BJP as they have a sentimental attachment to Modi and the BJP. For any situation, they are answerable only to Modi. Still, the NDA doesn’t have a convener even in the post-election. We may see no NDA existence like earlier Modi governments. At that time also the NDA was there but was not alive as a ruling alliance. When the JDU, Trinamool and Congress formed the INDIA alliance, Modi picked up the NDA from the “corner of the terrace.”

If any of his alliance partners decide to leave the government, it will not fall like the Vajpayee government so long as the speaker is a BJP man. The speaker post is more crucial for the BJP and OM Birla is not a Balayogi. Modi may be uncomfortable in the Lok Sabha, but his government will last five years with a smile.

SAJIKUMAR

https://sajikumar.co.in/